The early vote returns in the US battleground states are causing uncertainty about whether Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican rival Donald Trump will emerge victorious. The unique vote counting rules and quirks in several key states may lead to potential shifts in the election results, similar to what was observed in the 2020 election.
In the previous election, a "red mirage" phenomenon occurred, where Trump initially appeared to be leading on election night, only to be overtaken by Joe Biden as more Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots were counted. This led to Trump making false claims of election fraud, despite experts predicting the shift.
This year, a similar scenario could unfold in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where the counting of mail-in ballots could influence the final outcome. On the other hand, a "blue mirage" followed by a "red shift" could occur in states like North Carolina and Georgia, adding further complexity to the election results.
Trump’s campaign team has hinted at declaring victory prematurely based on Electoral College votes, which may not reflect the full picture of the election outcome. The processing and counting of mail-in and early ballots in different states, coupled with the demographic distribution of Democratic voters in urban areas, will play a crucial role in determining the final results.
There are seven battleground states that are crucial in deciding the election, each with its own set of rules for handling and counting ballots. Here is a breakdown of what to expect in some key states:
Pennsylvania: The state does not allow the processing of mail ballots until Election Day, leading to potential delays in announcing the final results. With a higher number of Democrats voting by mail, Trump’s initial lead based on Election Day votes may diminish as more mail ballots are counted.
Wisconsin: Similar to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin prohibits the processing of mail ballots before Election Day, resulting in delayed reporting of early vote results. The processing of mail ballots in large cities may cause significant spikes in vote counts, as seen in the 2020 election.
Georgia: Early in-person voting is popular in Georgia, with strict deadlines for processing and reporting all votes by election night. Any overseas or military ballots received after the election day may impact the final outcome.
Arizona: With a high percentage of mail-in ballots, Arizona allows for the processing of these ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until after polls close. The shift in results from early votes to Election Day votes could influence the final outcome.
Michigan: Michigan has implemented changes to allow for early processing of mail ballots, aiming to expedite result reporting and avoid a repeat of the "red mirage" scenario from the previous election.
North Carolina: Mail ballots are processed ahead of Election Day in North Carolina, with a mix of early and Election Day votes contributing to the final results. The outcome in North Carolina may remain uncertain for a week or more if the election is close.
Nevada: Nevada has made changes to speed up the vote counting process, but late-arriving mail ballots could still impact the final outcome. The state’s acceptance of late mail ballots may lead to a shift in results after Election Day.
As the election results unfold, the unique dynamics of each state’s vote counting rules and voter demographics will shape the final outcome. The potential for shifts in results, similar to the 2020 election, highlights the importance of patience and accuracy in determining the next president of the United States.
