In past presidential elections, the majority of Raila’s votes have always come from the Nyanza region in Western Kenya, where his party — the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) — is popular.
Last year, however, after President Ruto came to power, dozens of the opposition leader’s political allies defected to UDA, in a move expected to weaken ODM’s dominance.
The defected leaders, led by former governors Evans Kidero and Okoth Obado, recently claimed ODM is losing ground in Nyanza.
“ODM will soon be thrown into political oblivion. The political wave of UDA is becoming stronger,” Obado, a former governor of Migori County, told supporters.
UDA said it intends to register at least 350,000 new members in Homa Bay County, one of the four counties in the Nyanza region, by 2027. The county has 551,071 registered voters, according to the voter register from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
“It’s time to cross over. We want to turn the Nyanza region from orange to yellow,” said Kidero, the former Nairobi Governor, during a recent registration drive in Homa Bay.
During a trip to the region in March last year, Ruto urged voters from the region who did not support his presidential bid to ditch ODM.
The rivalry between the two parties now seems to have reached fever pitch. During a demonstration organised by the opposition to protest the high cost of living, UDA’s main office in Kisumu City was vandalised, while the party’s office in Siaya was torched by angry ODM supporters.
And last week, at a funeral where Raila was in attendance, one person was killed and several others injured as ODM supporters clashed with those allied to Ruto’s party.
Democracy under threat
UDA politicians have accused ODM of undermining democratic principles and threatening Kenya’s multi-party gains.
According to Kennedy Obuya, UDA chairman in Homa Bay County, the opposition is getting jitters over the “rising popularity” of the ruling party in the region.
They perceive him [Raila] as their political godfather and pillar of their political struggle to lead Kenya. Raila’s word, when it comes to political issues, is always final
“The ODM party has chosen a path of intimidation, chaos, violence and harassment to stem competition in the Nyanza region,” he said.
For Kimani Ichung’wah, the majority leader in the parliament, the “continued attacks” on ODM risks the implementation of the recently-concluded talks between political parties.
Nyanza is ODM zone
Unfazed by Ruto’s efforts to take over Nyanza region, ODM officials have vowed to maintain Raila’s dominance.
“Nyanza is an ODM region. We will not allow anybody to bring something which is not ODM,” Senator Eddy Oketch told supporters at a political gathering in Migori.
And Governor James Orengo, a close ally of Raila, recently threatened to deal with any UDA official who tries to speak at public events where he is present.
Kevin Ochol, a political analyst, however says it will be difficult for UDA to penetrate into the region as long as Raila remains politically active.
“Majority of people in the Nyanza region cherish Raila,” he tells The Africa Report. “They perceive him as their political godfather and pillar of their political struggle to lead Kenya. Raila’s word, when it comes to political issues, is always final.”
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