A recent study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has shed light on how Europe has been adapting to temperature changes over the past two decades. The research, conducted in collaboration with the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) and published in The Lancet Planetary Health, revealed that Europe has shown better adaptation to low temperatures compared to high temperatures.
The study, which analyzed temperature and mortality data from over 800 regions in 35 European countries between 2003 and 2020, found a significant decrease in cold-related mortality risk over the years. There was also a reduction in the risk of heat-related deaths, although to a lesser extent.
One of the key findings of the study was the development of a new concept called Extreme-Risk Temperature (ERT), which takes into account regional differences in vulnerability to extreme temperatures. By using this new approach, the researchers were able to calculate the temperature at which the risk of death exceeds a certain threshold for each geographical area.
The results showed that Europe experienced fewer dangerously cold days (cold-ERT days) each year, while dangerously hot days (heat-ERT days) increased slightly. Interestingly, regions in Southern Europe, despite their warmer climates, were found to be more sensitive to temperature changes, leading to a higher risk of associated mortality.
Lead researcher Zhao-Yue Chen noted that Europe has made significant progress in adapting to cold temperatures, but there is still room for improvement in coping with heat-related mortality. The study also highlighted the need for more comprehensive heat adaptation measures and heat-health action plans across European countries.
In addition to temperature-related risks, the study also examined the combined effects of temperature and air pollution on health. The researchers found that compound days, where extreme temperatures coincide with high pollution levels, are a growing concern in Europe. Strategies to address secondary pollutants such as ozone, which can exacerbate the health effects of extreme temperatures, are crucial in mitigating these risks.
The study, conducted as part of the EARLY-ADAPT project, underscores the importance of understanding how populations are adapting to the public health challenges brought about by climate change. By identifying regional vulnerabilities and developing targeted strategies, Europe can better protect its population from the health impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution.
