The University of California San Diego recently conducted a study that revealed a significant decline in cigarette smoking across the United States, driven primarily by young adults. Published in JAMA Network Open on April 25, 2025, the study highlighted that states with historically high smoking rates have experienced the most dramatic decreases in smoking prevalence. However, the progress in smoking cessation among adults over 50 has been slower, which could prolong the public health burden of smoking-related diseases and mortality.
According to Matthew Stone, Ph.D., an assistant professor at UC San Diego Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, the rapid decline in smoking among young adults indicates that the smoking epidemic is likely to end within our lifetime. It is projected that the national smoking prevalence will drop below 5% by 2035. Nonetheless, the slower decline in smokers over 50, especially in states with high historical smoking rates, may delay the reduction in smoking-related diseases such as lung cancer, heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
The researchers utilized data from the Tobacco Use Supplements to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, analyzing responses from approximately 1.77 million individuals. The study found significant variations in smoking prevalence across different states, with the most substantial declines observed in states with a history of high smoking rates. Disparities in smoking prevalence based on age, gender, race, ethnicity, and education persisted over the years, with a notable decline in smoking among young adults compared to older age groups.
Since the 1950s, when the link between smoking and lung cancer was first established, national smoking rates have plummeted. In 1955, 56.9% of U.S. adults smoked, a figure that has since halved by the turn of the century and dropped by another 50% by 2022. The downward trend is expected to continue, with smoking rates projected to decrease by half again by 2035. States that have made significant progress in reducing smoking have also witnessed substantial declines in lung cancer mortality, typically with a lag of 16 years.
While the decline in cigarette smoking is considered a major public health achievement, concerns have been raised about the tobacco industry’s recruitment of teenagers into e-cigarette use and nicotine addiction. Further research is necessary to assess the long-term implications of this shift in tobacco consumption patterns.
For more information, the study titled “State and Sociodemographic Trends in US Cigarette Smoking With Future Projections” can be accessed in JAMA Network Open. The University of California San Diego conducted the research, shedding light on the evolving landscape of smoking prevalence in the United States.
