The latest OPEC report reveals that in May, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) experienced a significant decline of $5.36, or 7.8%, month on month (m-o-m), reaching $63.62/b. Similarly, the ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $2.45, or 3.7%, to average $64.01/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $2.02, or 3.2%, to $60.94/b.
The report highlighted that the global economy maintained a stable growth trajectory in May, supported by healthy 1Q25 growth and progress in US trade negotiations. The global economic growth forecasts were unchanged at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026.
Regarding oil demand, the global oil demand growth prediction for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d, year-over-year (y-o-y), with some minor revisions based on 1Q25 real data. OECD oil consumption is expected to increase by around 0.2 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is projected to rise by over 1.1 mb/d.
In terms of oil supply, non-DoC liquids are anticipated to increase by approximately 0.8 mb/d y-o-y in 2025, with Argentina, Canada, Brazil, and the United States identified as the primary growth engines. However, supply output in Africa and certain Asian markets is expected to decline significantly in the second half of the year.
Despite these declines, some African countries continue to produce substantial amounts of crude oil. The OPEC report listed the top African countries with the highest oil production in May 2025. Nigeria topped the list with 1,544 tb/d, followed by Libya with 1,302 tb/d, Algeria with 921 tb/d, Congo with 253 tb/d, and Gabon with 233 tb/d. Save for Congo, all other African countries on the list experienced an increase in oil production compared to the previous month.
These insights from the OPEC report provide a comprehensive overview of the oil market trends and production dynamics in Africa and globally, shaping the future outlook for the industry.
