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The war in Sudan has reignited in a fierce battle for downtown Khartoum, reminiscent of the conflict that first sparked two years ago. After days of intense clashes, forces loyal to de facto president General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan successfully recaptured the presidential palace from their former allies in the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This significant victory, followed by the seizure of other key government buildings including the central bank, marks a potential turning point in the ongoing civil war.
The recent recapture of the presidential palace signifies a shift in momentum in favor of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). If the army can consolidate control of Khartoum, it would pave the way for Gen Burhan to establish a transitional government and seek broader international recognition. However, this moment also poses great risks for both Gen Burhan and the nation of Sudan, as a concurrent victory for the RSF in the western region of Darfur highlights the looming threat of de facto partition.
Suliman Baldo, an experienced conflict resolution expert, emphasized the significant symbolic and political value that the army stands to gain from reclaiming control of the capital. The city of Khartoum bears the scars of the relentless fighting, with soldiers celebrating amidst shattered windows and scorched facades, serving as a stark reminder of the devastation wrought by the conflict.
The conflict in Sudan erupted in downtown Khartoum in 2023 following a power struggle between the army and the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, who faces accusations of genocide by the US. Initially allies in the overthrow of the transitional government that followed the ousting of former president Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the two factions turned against each other as tensions escalated.
Despite initial setbacks, the army has managed to reverse its fortunes since last September, reclaiming significant territory and asserting control over most of Khartoum. This shift in momentum can be attributed to various factors, including alliances with Islamist brigades, the acquisition of heavy weaponry, and the decline in RSF morale. The resupply of advanced military equipment, including drones and fighter jets, has bolstered the army’s position in the conflict.
However, the battle for Khartoum is far from over. A recent RSF counterattack resulted in casualties, underscoring the ongoing resistance in parts of the city. Concurrently, reports indicate that the RSF has made strategic advances in North Darfur, highlighting the challenges that lie ahead in reunifying the fractured nation.
Concerns persist that the army’s sole focus on regaining control of Khartoum may detract from addressing the conflict in Darfur and other regions. The potential lack of incentive for the SAF to engage in negotiations post-control of the capital could further exacerbate the risk of Sudan remaining divided.
The plight of civilians remains a pressing concern, with millions displaced and facing famine in war-torn regions. Both sides have been accused of committing atrocities, with reports of ethnically targeted killings and retaliatory violence. Gen Burhan faces the daunting task of restoring order and essential services to a city ravaged by conflict, while navigating the complexities of gaining international support for reconstruction efforts.
As the conflict continues to evolve, the delicate balance of power within Sudan hangs in the balance. Gen Burhan must navigate the competing interests of various factions, including hardline Islamist supporters of the former regime, while avoiding alienating potential allies in the international community. The road to peace and stability in Sudan remains uncertain, with the outcome of the conflict poised to shape the nation’s future for years to come.
